A new policy paper by ICSR argues that Al Qaeda is at its most critical juncture since it was established more than 20 years ago. Based on speeches and papers by Al Qaeda leaders as well as contributions to jihadist internet forums, ICSR analysts Shiraz Maher and Peter Neumann have tracked the movement’s responses over a period of twelve months, which included the killing of Osama bin Laden and the onset of the Arab Spring., The paper shows that the death of leadership figures, in itself, has done little to undermine the essentialist nature of the group’s ideology. More significant, according to the paper’s authors, have been events that Al Qaeda had little to do with and could not control: the political transformation across the Middle East, which started with the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt., As Maher and Neumann demonstrate, Al Qaeda has struggled to make sense of the Arab Spring:, The two authors conclude that, Al Qaeda’s responses to the Arab Spring are of an organization that is losing momentum, while – at the same time – also presenting new opportunities. Al Qaeda, therefore, is at a crossroads: whether or not it survives will be decided by how well it adapts to events that are beyond its control.