This report examines the nature of these changes and lays the foundation for a larger, year-long study that will forecast the nature of Al-Qaeda and Associated Movements (AQAM) in 2025. This report is part of the broader AQAM Futures Project, a joint study undertaken by the CSIS Transnational Threats Project and the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program. This initiative will produce a series of ‘alternative futures’ regarding the state of AQAM in the year 2025 and generate recommendations to defeat the threat over the long term. Drawing over historical analysis, social science research, expert interviews, and targeted fieldwork, this effort will prvide policymakers and strategists a vision beyond the next few years and consider the trends and shocks that may shape AQAM over the next decade and a half.