As of June 2015, the four-year-old civil war in Syria had forced more than 4 million people to flee their homes for neighboring countries. The impact of this outflow on Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey—which has received the largest number of refugees at nearly 1.8 million1 (UNHCR, 2015b)—has received significant press coverage. Discussion in the media of the crowded camp settings in particular—more than 200,000 are in Turkish camps and more than 100,000 are in Jordanian camps—as well as about clashes inside Lebanon between armed Syrian opposition groups, has focused on the risk that the refugees are likely to radicalize and supply militants to such groups as the self-styled Islamic State. However, our review of academic research on historical cases of populations fleeing armed conflict, plus the experiences of refugee experts interviewed for this analysis….