Every year, Western donors deploy vast sums of development assistance to dampen the appeal, among the world’s youth, of militias, pirates and terrorists. But guided by little in the way of empirical evidence, it is an enterprise plagued by unclear payoffs and unintended consequences. At the heart of these efforts are economic development programs. Vocational training for youth, for instance, is a favorite of donors and NGOs alike. Such efforts are informed by a widely held assumption: that idle young people, lacking licit opportunities to make a living, are a ready pool of recruits for armed movements. There is just one problem with this narrative. It does not appear to be true…