In February 2022, Moonshot launched the Threat Bulletin, a monthly, subscription-based product providing analysis of U.S. Domestic Violent Extremism (DVE) online. In addition to other forms of analysis, the Bulletin provides a monthly assessment of online threats and encouragement to violence against over 20 different communities and groups who are often targeted with hate and abuse.

A key question for the Threat Bulletin team has always been to what extent our online threat data correlates with the offline threat landscape. Does an increase in online threats towards Black communities, for example, correspond with an increase in hate crimes committed against these same communities?

This report represents a first attempt at understanding this relationship, detailing our comparative analysis of Moonshot’s online Threat Bulletin data with the FBI’s offline Hate Crime Statistics. While further research is still required, these initial findings indicate correspondence between online threats and the wider offline threat landscape.

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